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Race to White House: What polls say on Trump v. Harris

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.

  • A deep look at the national, swing state, and issue polling likely to define the 2024 race for president.

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention must still vote Vice President Kamala Harris in as the Party’s nominee for president, but barring intra-party drama, she will be former President Donald Trump’s opponent. Harris secured commitments from the necessary number of delegates this week, along with a bevy of high profile endorsements, including former President Barack Obama.

The analysis below examines national polling and swing state polling, before exploring the issue and dynamics that will guide campaigns through Election Day. Put on your scuba gear. It’s a deep dive.

National Presidential Polls

Early polling suggests President Joe Biden’s departure from the race and Harris ascendency has breathed new life into Democrats. The Hill’s average of 81 separate polls pitting Trump versus Harris puts Trump up 2.1 point, 47.8% to 45.7%.

By contrast, The Hill’s average of 826 separate polls conducted between Trump and Biden had Trump up 3.3 points, 46.6% to 43.3%.

A few things of note in comparing the two sets of polling. Now that there is more certainty about the candidates, both Trump and Harris have seen an uptick in “locked in” support. Harris has closed the gap slightly. To some degree, the narrowing is to be expected. Many Democrats had written off winning the White House with Biden as their standard bearer. Harris brings new hope, and with it, new excitement.

Swing State Presidential Polls

National polls help in understanding public sentiment, but the race for the White House will be decided by a few percentage points of voters in a few states.

States like Ohio and Florida are no longer considered “swing states” and are firmly in the Republican camp. Trump has also succeeded in expanding the battleground map to places like Minnesota, Nevada, and Virginia.

Notably, there have been decidedly fewer Trump-Harris polls in individual swing states and many were taken prior to Biden dropping out of the race and Harris assuming the mantle.

Emerson College Polling ran polls this week in Arizona (Trump +5), Georgia (Trump +2), Michigan (Trump +1), Pennsylvania (Trump +2), and Wisconsin (tied) which showed the race tightening in those states.

Redfield and Wilton Strategies released polling today in Arizona (Trump +3), Georgia (Trump +5), Michigan (Trump +3), Minnesota (Harris +3), Nevada (Trump +2), North Carolina (Trump +3), Pennsylvania (Trump +4) and Wisconsin (Trump +1).

If Current Polls Hold, Trump Wins

For context, President Biden defeated former President Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. It takes 270 electoral colleges votes to win the presidency. If the election were to follow current polling in the battleground states, Trump would win the White House with 312 electoral college votes.

imageimage

Harris is currently considering vice president picks that include Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. The homestate of her selection could positively impact the battleground map for her.

The Mood of a Country

Now, to dig deep we will look at two comprehensive polls conducted by YouGov this week, one for The Economist and one for Times/SAY24. These polls provide valuable insights into the mood of the country, the constituencies of the candidates, how Americans perceive their leadership abilities and the issues that will decide the election.

It makes sense to start with recognition that Americans are particularly dour about the direction of the nation. 69% of respondents in The Economist/YouGov poll said the country was headed in the wrong direction to just 20% who said it was on the right track.

Republicans lead the “Eeyore caucus” with 92% expressing disapproval, but they are not alone. 73% of independents say the nation’s on the wrong track. 41% of Democrats also believe we are heading the wrong direction.

The negative sentiment held across racial demographics, with White (74%), Hispanic (70%), and Black (50%) majorities all saying we’re on the wrong track. This kind of negative sentiment generally hurts the party in power.

“It’s the Economy, Stupid”

In 1992, Democratic operative James Carville famously quipped “it’s the economy, stupid,” in describing why Bill Clinton’s campaign would prevail over then-President George H.W. Bush.

Fast forward to 2024 and inflation and the economy are among the top issues identified by voters. They’re not happy.

In The Economist/YouGov Poll, only 25% of the country says the economy is either excellent (6%) or good (19%). 72% say it is fair (27%) to poor (45%).

52% think the economy is trending worse. It should be noted that the economy was arguably worse in 2022, when Republicans predicted a “Red Wave.” The Red Wave did not come.

Harris Digging Out of a Biden Hole

Despite glowing reviews from the punditry on President Joe Biden following his decision to drop out of the race, the American public is not impressed with his job performance.

Biden’s net job approval rating in The Economist/YouGov Poll was negative 19, with only 38% approving of the job he is doing as president. There was little improvement when it came to individual issues.

To compound Harris’ problem assuming the mantle from Biden, 54% of respondents in the Times/SAY24 Ooll expressed a belief that there had been a cover up of Biden’s health (30% said they did not believe there had been a cover up and the remainder was undecided). Among those who believed a cover up had occurred, 85% said Harris was involved in the cover up.

In the lead up to the June 27th debate between Biden and Trump, Harris regularly defended Biden’s mental acuity. She told Good Morning America in February that “we have a very bold and vibrant president in Joe Biden,” and insisted “our president is in good shape, in good health, and is ready to lead in our second term.”

Harris & Trump Constituencies

The Economist/YouGov Poll looked at how various demographic constituencies are lining up behind Harris and Trump.

Show Me the Money: Trump has an 8 point lead with people earning less than $50k & a 6 point lead with people earning between $50k-100k. Harris leads by 3 points with $100k+ earners.

The reputation of the Democrats as the “working man’s party” and Republicans as “country club” seems to have inverted. Hard to tell if this is a byproduct of the GOPs messaging shift toward populist economic policies or if the messaging shift followed the support. Chicken or egg.

Battle of the Sexes: Trump leads by 8 points with men. For all of the chatter about the seismic shift of women away from conservatism/Republicans, Harris only leads by 2 points with women. To be successful in overtaking Trump, she will have to build this margin. Look for abortion and attacks painting both Trump and his selection for vice president, J.D. Vance (R-OH), as sexists to feature prominently in messaging on behalf of Harris.

Trump lost states like Georgia in 2020 largely because of an outflow of suburban women. It will be interesting to see how the 2024 campaign balances male-centric messaging (e.g. Hulk Hogan and UFC’s Dana White at the RNC Convention) with concerted outreach efforts to women.

Racial Lines: Harris has strong leads with both Black and Hispanic voters, but Trump’s numbers with both minority populations have him outperforming most Republican candidates in modern history.

Trump presently draws 14% of Black voters. If he were to maintain this level of support, it would be the highest Black vote tally for a Republican presidential candidate since 1960 when Richard Nixon drew nearly 30% of the Black population’s vote. Trump presently draws 38% of Hispanic voters, the highest level since George W. Bush pulled down nearly 40% in 2004.

Less than a percent of African Americans voted for Republican John McCain in 2008 when he ran against former President Obama. Harris will attempt to catch Obama’s lightning in the bottle, but at a minimum, will need to cut into Trump’s current minority support to have a chance.

Declare Your Independents: Trump leads with independents by 9 points. If he maintains this lead, he will very likely be elected President.

Is Support Firm or Soft?

For the most part, votes are locked in according to The Economist/YouGov Poll. 91% of Harris supporters say they will not change their votes, with just 9% saying they may. Trump’s support is even more set, by a 95-5% margin.

With support locked down, the test for both campaigns becomes how to pump up enthusiasm, drive their turnout, and toss a wet blanket on their opponent’s turnout.

54% of third-party candidate supporters say they may change their vote. This is the wild card in the deck. A lot of the third-party candidates’ current supporters will end up in an R or D camp by the end of the election. How do Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s voters break if they decide to go mainstream?

For Love or Hate

82% of Trump voters say they are mostly motivated to support him, versus being motivated by opposition to Harris. The same cannot be said for Harris voters. 55% of her supporters say they are primarily motivated to oppose Trump, versus being in it for Harris.

While this could change as people become more acquainted with Harris, the race largely looks like a referendum on Trump. He inspires fealty and hatred all at once.

The Economist/YouGov Poll put Trump’s favorability rating at negative 10 (43-53%) and Harris’ favorability rating at negative 9 (42-51%), which is to say that the majority of Americans are not thrilled with either candidate. Trump’s selection for vice president, Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), also begins under water on favorability (34-42%).

In the Times/SAY24 Poll, 69% perceive Kamala Harris as being either very liberal (41%) or liberal (28%). By comparison, 61% believed Biden to be either very liberal (35%) or liberal (26%).

It will be interesting to see the trade-off between the gain in perceived competency to serve versus the perceived move left on the ideological spectrum.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on reproductive freedom at Howard University on Tuesday, April 25, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard)

During her time in the U.S. Senate, Harris was rated as the most liberal senator in the chamber by the non-partisan accountability organization GovTrack. GovTrack removed that information from its website this week, pointing to revised rankings that put Harris as the second most left-leaning senator behind Vermont Independent Bernie Sanders.

Expect the Trump campaign to focus heavily on Harris’ pre-Vice President record, which included being a signatory on the Green New Deal, co-sponsoring “climate equity” legislation with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, advocating for a ban on fracking, and support for expansive new welfare programs, higher taxes, and taxpayer-funded abortions.

Mr. Personality?

Respondents in the Times/SAY24 Poll think Trump is more authentic than Harris.

46% said Trump believes what he says more than just saying what people want to hear (32%). By contrast, 41% said Harris says what people want to hear more than saying what she actually believes (30%).

Of course, if you think someone believes what they are saying, and you don’t like what they are saying, authenticity could cut against the candidate.

Respondents also see Trump as the stronger leader. 61% said he was strong, versus 39% who see him as a weak leader. This means that a sizeable portion of Democrats even see Trump as strong.

49% said Harris is a strong leader, versus 51% who see her as weak.

The Issues that Matter:

The Economist/YouGov Poll went through a lengthy list of issues to determine how important they were to voters. Each issue was tested individually. Additionally, respondents were asked to pick the “most important” issue from the list. The chart below shows the top 5 issues selected as “most important.”

Notably, while abortion ranked fifth on the “most” important issue list, only 72% of respondents said it was either very important or somewhat important, the lowest score of over a dozen issues tested. This suggest that the people who care about abortion really care — enough to name it their number one issue — but that its breadth is not as wide as other issues.

Who Do Voters Trust on the Issues?

According to the Times/SAY24 Poll, voters trust former President Trump by wide margins on the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and addressing crime. Voters trust Vice President Harris by a wide margin on abortion and by a much smaller margin on Supreme Court appointments.

The polling helps explain why Trump focuses so much energy on the economy, inflation, and immigration, and why Harris will try to distance herself as much as possible from inflation and immigration.

When she ran for president in 2020, Harris voiced support for decriminalizing illegal immigration into the United States and for providing taxpayer-funded government healthcare to migrants. In a 2018 Senate hearing, she drew parallels between ICE agents and the Ku Klux Klan. It will be interesting to see if she pivots from positions like these, which may be viewed as extreme by many Americans.

The polling on who Americans trust with key issues also gives good insight into why abortion and SCOTUS are two of the central issues being pushed by Harris and Biden right now.

The two issues are somewhat tied together. SCOTUS has been turned into a target in large part because of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. For all of the energy trained on delegitimizing the Supreme Court, a current 2-point advantage may suggests that attacking the Court itself is not a vote catalyst.

Abortion, on the other hand, is one of the few spots where Democrats have a clear advantage with voters. Trump has tried to insulate the Republican Party platform from abortion, has come out in opposition to a federal ban on abortion, and has made clear he will not interfere with IVF.

Past Performance is No Indicator of Future Success

Polls are a snapshot in time. While the election is just on the horizon, three plus months is an eternity in politics. There will be October surprises, and likely some August and September surprises, too. But the current polls give a pretty good indicator of which states, dynamics, and issues will be important in determining a winner.

One potential disruptor on the horizon is Trump’s September sentencing date in the Manhattan falsification of business records case. These charges typically do not draw prison time for first time offenders — in fact, they are typically misdemeanors. But Judge Juan Merchan could theoretically sentence Trump to more than 130 years in prison (34 counts at a maximum of 4 years per count). The potential for this chaos seems to be off everyone’s radars for some reason, but could create both severe legal and political headaches for Trump.

Judge Juan Merchan poses for a picture in his chambers in New York, Thursday, March 14, 2024. Merchan could become the first judge ever to oversee a former U.S. president’s criminal trial. He’s presiding over Donald Trump’s hush money case in New York. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Another potential disruptor centers around two foreign conflicts. Trump has some difficulty with the war in Ukraine, while Harris is walking a tightrope on the war in Gaza.

59% of respondents in the Times/SAY24 Poll sympathize with Ukraine, 27% with neither nation, and only 3% with Russia. Even among locked in Trump voters, considerably more sympathy resides with Ukraine (47% to 6% who side with Russia). Even so, a plurality of voters favor decreasing aid to Ukraine (34%), with only 21% voicing support for increased aid and 24% saying to keep it the same. 55% of Trump supporters want to decrease aid.

This presents a messaging tight wire for Trump. The majority of people think Russia is the big baddie. If he defends Putin, he puts himself out of touch even with his own voters. He can, though, make the case that it’s not our war to fight or fund.

But the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is taking a back seat in the American consciousness to the war in the Middle East. Sympathies between Israel and Gaza are more mixed and fairly partisan. Trump’s base overwhelmingly supports Israel. But Harris’ base is more divided, with 12% supporting Israel, 38% saying they support both equally, and 34% siding with the Palestinians.

Palestinian flags were put up at Union Station this week after protesters took down and burned American flags. One protester held a sign encouraging the “Final Solution,” a reference to Adolph Hitler’s plan to eradicate Jews.

Protests in Union Square during as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before Congress highlights the potential powder keg. American flags were lowered from three flagpoles and burned, while Palestinian flags were hoisted. Statues in the vicinity were graffitied with phrases like “Hamas is coming” and “all Zionists are bastards.” One man held a sign that read “Allah is gathering all the Zionist for the ‘Final Solution,’” a reference to Adolph Hitler’s plan to eradicate Jews.

Should college resume in the fall with the types of campus protests that closed the spring semester, Harris may be forced to take positions that will divide her base of support or diminish enthusiasm among young voters.

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Read original article by clicking here.

Race to White House: What polls say on Trump v. Harris

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.

  • A deep look at the national, swing state, and issue polling likely to define the 2024 race for president.

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention must still vote Vice President Kamala Harris in as the Party’s nominee for president, but barring intra-party drama, she will be former President Donald Trump’s opponent. Harris secured commitments from the necessary number of delegates this week, along with a bevy of high profile endorsements, including former President Barack Obama.

The analysis below examines national polling and swing state polling, before exploring the issue and dynamics that will guide campaigns through Election Day. Put on your scuba gear. It’s a deep dive.

National Presidential Polls

Early polling suggests President Joe Biden’s departure from the race and Harris ascendency has breathed new life into Democrats. The Hill’s average of 81 separate polls pitting Trump versus Harris puts Trump up 2.1 point, 47.8% to 45.7%.

By contrast, The Hill’s average of 826 separate polls conducted between Trump and Biden had Trump up 3.3 points, 46.6% to 43.3%.

A few things of note in comparing the two sets of polling. Now that there is more certainty about the candidates, both Trump and Harris have seen an uptick in “locked in” support. Harris has closed the gap slightly. To some degree, the narrowing is to be expected. Many Democrats had written off winning the White House with Biden as their standard bearer. Harris brings new hope, and with it, new excitement.

Swing State Presidential Polls

National polls help in understanding public sentiment, but the race for the White House will be decided by a few percentage points of voters in a few states.

States like Ohio and Florida are no longer considered “swing states” and are firmly in the Republican camp. Trump has also succeeded in expanding the battleground map to places like Minnesota, Nevada, and Virginia.

Notably, there have been decidedly fewer Trump-Harris polls in individual swing states and many were taken prior to Biden dropping out of the race and Harris assuming the mantle.

Emerson College Polling ran polls this week in Arizona (Trump +5), Georgia (Trump +2), Michigan (Trump +1), Pennsylvania (Trump +2), and Wisconsin (tied) which showed the race tightening in those states.

Redfield and Wilton Strategies released polling today in Arizona (Trump +3), Georgia (Trump +5), Michigan (Trump +3), Minnesota (Harris +3), Nevada (Trump +2), North Carolina (Trump +3), Pennsylvania (Trump +4) and Wisconsin (Trump +1).

If Current Polls Hold, Trump Wins

For context, President Biden defeated former President Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. It takes 270 electoral colleges votes to win the presidency. If the election were to follow current polling in the battleground states, Trump would win the White House with 312 electoral college votes.

image

Harris is currently considering vice president picks that include Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. The homestate of her selection could positively impact the battleground map for her.

The Mood of a Country

Now, to dig deep we will look at two comprehensive polls conducted by YouGov this week, one for The Economist and one for Times/SAY24. These polls provide valuable insights into the mood of the country, the constituencies of the candidates, how Americans perceive their leadership abilities and the issues that will decide the election.

It makes sense to start with recognition that Americans are particularly dour about the direction of the nation. 69% of respondents in The Economist/YouGov poll said the country was headed in the wrong direction to just 20% who said it was on the right track.

Republicans lead the “Eeyore caucus” with 92% expressing disapproval, but they are not alone. 73% of independents say the nation’s on the wrong track. 41% of Democrats also believe we are heading the wrong direction.

The negative sentiment held across racial demographics, with White (74%), Hispanic (70%), and Black (50%) majorities all saying we’re on the wrong track. This kind of negative sentiment generally hurts the party in power.

“It’s the Economy, Stupid”

In 1992, Democratic operative James Carville famously quipped “it’s the economy, stupid,” in describing why Bill Clinton’s campaign would prevail over then-President George H.W. Bush.

Fast forward to 2024 and inflation and the economy are among the top issues identified by voters. They’re not happy.

In The Economist/YouGov Poll, only 25% of the country says the economy is either excellent (6%) or good (19%). 72% say it is fair (27%) to poor (45%).

52% think the economy is trending worse. It should be noted that the economy was arguably worse in 2022, when Republicans predicted a “Red Wave.” The Red Wave did not come.

Harris Digging Out of a Biden Hole

Despite glowing reviews from the punditry on President Joe Biden following his decision to drop out of the race, the American public is not impressed with his job performance.

Biden’s net job approval rating in The Economist/YouGov Poll was negative 19, with only 38% approving of the job he is doing as president. There was little improvement when it came to individual issues.

To compound Harris’ problem assuming the mantle from Biden, 54% of respondents in the Times/SAY24 Ooll expressed a belief that there had been a cover up of Biden’s health (30% said they did not believe there had been a cover up and the remainder was undecided). Among those who believed a cover up had occurred, 85% said Harris was involved in the cover up.

In the lead up to the June 27th debate between Biden and Trump, Harris regularly defended Biden’s mental acuity. She told Good Morning America in February that “we have a very bold and vibrant president in Joe Biden,” and insisted “our president is in good shape, in good health, and is ready to lead in our second term.”

Harris & Trump Constituencies

The Economist/YouGov Poll looked at how various demographic constituencies are lining up behind Harris and Trump.

Show Me the Money: Trump has an 8 point lead with people earning less than $50k & a 6 point lead with people earning between $50k-100k. Harris leads by 3 points with $100k+ earners.

The reputation of the Democrats as the “working man’s party” and Republicans as “country club” seems to have inverted. Hard to tell if this is a byproduct of the GOPs messaging shift toward populist economic policies or if the messaging shift followed the support. Chicken or egg.

Battle of the Sexes: Trump leads by 8 points with men. For all of the chatter about the seismic shift of women away from conservatism/Republicans, Harris only leads by 2 points with women. To be successful in overtaking Trump, she will have to build this margin. Look for abortion and attacks painting both Trump and his selection for vice president, J.D. Vance (R-OH), as sexists to feature prominently in messaging on behalf of Harris.

Trump lost states like Georgia in 2020 largely because of an outflow of suburban women. It will be interesting to see how the 2024 campaign balances male-centric messaging (e.g. Hulk Hogan and UFC’s Dana White at the RNC Convention) with concerted outreach efforts to women.

Racial Lines: Harris has strong leads with both Black and Hispanic voters, but Trump’s numbers with both minority populations have him outperforming most Republican candidates in modern history.

Trump presently draws 14% of Black voters. If he were to maintain this level of support, it would be the highest Black vote tally for a Republican presidential candidate since 1960 when Richard Nixon drew nearly 30% of the Black population’s vote. Trump presently draws 38% of Hispanic voters, the highest level since George W. Bush pulled down nearly 40% in 2004.

Less than a percent of African Americans voted for Republican John McCain in 2008 when he ran against former President Obama. Harris will attempt to catch Obama’s lightning in the bottle, but at a minimum, will need to cut into Trump’s current minority support to have a chance.

Declare Your Independents: Trump leads with independents by 9 points. If he maintains this lead, he will very likely be elected President.

Is Support Firm or Soft?

For the most part, votes are locked in according to The Economist/YouGov Poll. 91% of Harris supporters say they will not change their votes, with just 9% saying they may. Trump’s support is even more set, by a 95-5% margin.

With support locked down, the test for both campaigns becomes how to pump up enthusiasm, drive their turnout, and toss a wet blanket on their opponent’s turnout.

54% of third-party candidate supporters say they may change their vote. This is the wild card in the deck. A lot of the third-party candidates’ current supporters will end up in an R or D camp by the end of the election. How do Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s voters break if they decide to go mainstream?

For Love or Hate

82% of Trump voters say they are mostly motivated to support him, versus being motivated by opposition to Harris. The same cannot be said for Harris voters. 55% of her supporters say they are primarily motivated to oppose Trump, versus being in it for Harris.

While this could change as people become more acquainted with Harris, the race largely looks like a referendum on Trump. He inspires fealty and hatred all at once.

The Economist/YouGov Poll put Trump’s favorability rating at negative 10 (43-53%) and Harris’ favorability rating at negative 9 (42-51%), which is to say that the majority of Americans are not thrilled with either candidate. Trump’s selection for vice president, Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), also begins under water on favorability (34-42%).

In the Times/SAY24 Poll, 69% perceive Kamala Harris as being either very liberal (41%) or liberal (28%). By comparison, 61% believed Biden to be either very liberal (35%) or liberal (26%).

It will be interesting to see the trade-off between the gain in perceived competency to serve versus the perceived move left on the ideological spectrum.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on reproductive freedom at Howard University on Tuesday, April 25, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard)

During her time in the U.S. Senate, Harris was rated as the most liberal senator in the chamber by the non-partisan accountability organization GovTrack. GovTrack removed that information from its website this week, pointing to revised rankings that put Harris as the second most left-leaning senator behind Vermont Independent Bernie Sanders.

Expect the Trump campaign to focus heavily on Harris’ pre-Vice President record, which included being a signatory on the Green New Deal, co-sponsoring “climate equity” legislation with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, advocating for a ban on fracking, and support for expansive new welfare programs, higher taxes, and taxpayer-funded abortions.

Mr. Personality?

Respondents in the Times/SAY24 Poll think Trump is more authentic than Harris.

46% said Trump believes what he says more than just saying what people want to hear (32%). By contrast, 41% said Harris says what people want to hear more than saying what she actually believes (30%).

Of course, if you think someone believes what they are saying, and you don’t like what they are saying, authenticity could cut against the candidate.

Respondents also see Trump as the stronger leader. 61% said he was strong, versus 39% who see him as a weak leader. This means that a sizeable portion of Democrats even see Trump as strong.

49% said Harris is a strong leader, versus 51% who see her as weak.

The Issues that Matter:

The Economist/YouGov Poll went through a lengthy list of issues to determine how important they were to voters. Each issue was tested individually. Additionally, respondents were asked to pick the “most important” issue from the list. The chart below shows the top 5 issues selected as “most important.”

Notably, while abortion ranked fifth on the “most” important issue list, only 72% of respondents said it was either very important or somewhat important, the lowest score of over a dozen issues tested. This suggest that the people who care about abortion really care — enough to name it their number one issue — but that its breadth is not as wide as other issues.

Who Do Voters Trust on the Issues?

According to the Times/SAY24 Poll, voters trust former President Trump by wide margins on the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and addressing crime. Voters trust Vice President Harris by a wide margin on abortion and by a much smaller margin on Supreme Court appointments.

The polling helps explain why Trump focuses so much energy on the economy, inflation, and immigration, and why Harris will try to distance herself as much as possible from inflation and immigration.

When she ran for president in 2020, Harris voiced support for decriminalizing illegal immigration into the United States and for providing taxpayer-funded government healthcare to migrants. In a 2018 Senate hearing, she drew parallels between ICE agents and the Ku Klux Klan. It will be interesting to see if she pivots from positions like these, which may be viewed as extreme by many Americans.

The polling on who Americans trust with key issues also gives good insight into why abortion and SCOTUS are two of the central issues being pushed by Harris and Biden right now.

The two issues are somewhat tied together. SCOTUS has been turned into a target in large part because of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. For all of the energy trained on delegitimizing the Supreme Court, a current 2-point advantage may suggests that attacking the Court itself is not a vote catalyst.

Abortion, on the other hand, is one of the few spots where Democrats have a clear advantage with voters. Trump has tried to insulate the Republican Party platform from abortion, has come out in opposition to a federal ban on abortion, and has made clear he will not interfere with IVF.

Past Performance is No Indicator of Future Success

Polls are a snapshot in time. While the election is just on the horizon, three plus months is an eternity in politics. There will be October surprises, and likely some August and September surprises, too. But the current polls give a pretty good indicator of which states, dynamics, and issues will be important in determining a winner.

One potential disruptor on the horizon is Trump’s September sentencing date in the Manhattan falsification of business records case. These charges typically do not draw prison time for first time offenders — in fact, they are typically misdemeanors. But Judge Juan Merchan could theoretically sentence Trump to more than 130 years in prison (34 counts at a maximum of 4 years per count). The potential for this chaos seems to be off everyone’s radars for some reason, but could create both severe legal and political headaches for Trump.

Judge Juan Merchan poses for a picture in his chambers in New York, Thursday, March 14, 2024. Merchan could become the first judge ever to oversee a former U.S. president’s criminal trial. He’s presiding over Donald Trump’s hush money case in New York. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Another potential disruptor centers around two foreign conflicts. Trump has some difficulty with the war in Ukraine, while Harris is walking a tightrope on the war in Gaza.

59% of respondents in the Times/SAY24 Poll sympathize with Ukraine, 27% with neither nation, and only 3% with Russia. Even among locked in Trump voters, considerably more sympathy resides with Ukraine (47% to 6% who side with Russia). Even so, a plurality of voters favor decreasing aid to Ukraine (34%), with only 21% voicing support for increased aid and 24% saying to keep it the same. 55% of Trump supporters want to decrease aid.

This presents a messaging tight wire for Trump. The majority of people think Russia is the big baddie. If he defends Putin, he puts himself out of touch even with his own voters. He can, though, make the case that it’s not our war to fight or fund.

But the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is taking a back seat in the American consciousness to the war in the Middle East. Sympathies between Israel and Gaza are more mixed and fairly partisan. Trump’s base overwhelmingly supports Israel. But Harris’ base is more divided, with 12% supporting Israel, 38% saying they support both equally, and 34% siding with the Palestinians.

Palestinian flags were put up at Union Station this week after protesters took down and burned American flags. One protester held a sign encouraging the “Final Solution,” a reference to Adolph Hitler’s plan to eradicate Jews.

Protests in Union Square during as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before Congress highlights the potential powder keg. American flags were lowered from three flagpoles and burned, while Palestinian flags were hoisted. Statues in the vicinity were graffitied with phrases like “Hamas is coming” and “all Zionists are bastards.” One man held a sign that read “Allah is gathering all the Zionist for the ‘Final Solution,’” a reference to Adolph Hitler’s plan to eradicate Jews.

Should college resume in the fall with the types of campus protests that closed the spring semester, Harris may be forced to take positions that will divide her base of support or diminish enthusiasm among young voters.

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Read original article by clicking here.

MSGOP plans to join challenge of Biden campaign’s transfer of funds to Harris

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This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris stand on stage at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting, Friday, Feb. 3, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)q

  • The Magnolia State GOP’s entry would bring the total to 17 Republican state parties and one U.S. territory GOP party alleging that the $96 million transfer from Biden to Harris is illegal.

Sixteen Republican state parties and one territory GOP party have joined together to file a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) over the transfer of funds from the Biden campaign to the Harris campaign.

The state GOP parties signing on to lawsuit currently include Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming, along with the U.S. territory of the Virgin Islands.

Mississippi, one of the most conservative states in the nation, is not listed among the group. However, according to Mississippi Republican Party chairman Mike Hurst, the MSGOP plans to join the litigation in the coming days.

The state parties, along with Citizens United, allege that the transfer of $96 million in funds from President Joe Biden’s campaign to his Vice President Kamala Harris is illegal as it is “a massively excessive contribution.”

Biden agreed to step aside on Sunday, ending his White House re-election bid. Soon thereafter, Biden endorsed Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Citizens United, the same group that challenged campaign finance restrictions in the landmark U.S. Supreme Court case in 2010, called the transfer “brazen violations of federal campaign finance law.”

“The FEC must investigate this unlawful conversion of campaign funds and assets without delay,” the group stated.

David Bossie, former President Donald Trump’s deputy campaign manager in 2016, is the Chairman and President of Citizens United.

Former President Trump’s campaign, the Republican presidential nominee for a third consecutive election cycle, has also filed a complaint with the FEC over the transaction.

According to the lawsuit, the groups claim that by seizing control of the Biden campaign committee as her own campaign committee for her new presidential campaign, “Kamala Harris has misappropriated the Committee’s funds and all of its non-monetary assets, thereby accepting an excessive contribution from Biden for President of approximately $96 million at the very least.”

Harris’ campaign has called the complaint “baseless,” saying Republicans are “jealous” over the energy her being the presumptive nominee has created.

The FEC has not commented on the complaint.

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

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MSGOP plans to join challenge of Biden campaign’s transfer of funds to Harris

0

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris stand on stage at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting, Friday, Feb. 3, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)q

  • The Magnolia State GOP’s entry would bring the total to 17 Republican state parties and one U.S. territory GOP party alleging that the $96 million transfer from Biden to Harris is illegal.

Sixteen Republican state parties and one territory GOP party have joined together to file a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) over the transfer of funds from the Biden campaign to the Harris campaign.

The state GOP parties signing on to lawsuit currently include Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming, along with the U.S. territory of the Virgin Islands.

Mississippi, one of the most conservative states in the nation, is not listed among the group. However, according to Mississippi Republican Party chairman Mike Hurst, the MSGOP plans to join the litigation in the coming days.

The state parties, along with Citizens United, allege that the transfer of $96 million in funds from President Joe Biden’s campaign to his Vice President Kamala Harris is illegal as it is “a massively excessive contribution.”

Biden agreed to step aside on Sunday, ending his White House re-election bid. Soon thereafter, Biden endorsed Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Citizens United, the same group that challenged campaign finance restrictions in the landmark U.S. Supreme Court case in 2010, called the transfer “brazen violations of federal campaign finance law.”

“The FEC must investigate this unlawful conversion of campaign funds and assets without delay,” the group stated.

David Bossie, former President Donald Trump’s deputy campaign manager in 2016, is the Chairman and President of Citizens United.

Former President Trump’s campaign, the Republican presidential nominee for a third consecutive election cycle, has also filed a complaint with the FEC over the transaction.

According to the lawsuit, the groups claim that by seizing control of the Biden campaign committee as her own campaign committee for her new presidential campaign, “Kamala Harris has misappropriated the Committee’s funds and all of its non-monetary assets, thereby accepting an excessive contribution from Biden for President of approximately $96 million at the very least.”

Harris’ campaign has called the complaint “baseless,” saying Republicans are “jealous” over the energy her being the presumptive nominee has created.

The FEC has not commented on the complaint.

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Read original article by clicking here.

Mississippi Jewish congregation implores colleges to ensure student safety as classes resume

0

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.

Demonstrators march outside of the U.S. Capitol as they protest the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, July 24, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

  • Pro-Palestinian protests broke out in Washington D.C. this week as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States this week sparked protests in the nation’s capital.

As he shared his plan for victory over the terrorist group Hamas in a joint session of Congress, thousands of protestors gathered around Washington D.C. expressing their dissatisfaction with the war in Gaza – a war brought about by the Palestinian group’s brutal attack in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Pro-Palestinian protestors converged on Union Square holding up an effigy of Netanyahu along with signs saying “Wanted.” They defaced public property with spray paint with messages saying, “Free Gaza,” “All zionists are bastards,” “Free Palestine,” and “Hamas is coming.” A U.S. flag was pulled down and burned as a Palestinian flag was raised in its place. A number of protestors were arrested.

Netanyahu was defiant in his speech to Congress, saying if Israel loses, “America is next.” He pushed back on the protestors and called them “Iran’s useful idiots.” He spoke against the protests across the U.S. country, including on college campuses.

Mississippi, like many other states, experienced pro-Palestinian protests on its college campuses earlier this year. Brief protests were held at the University of Mississippi and Southern Miss. The Ole Miss protest lasted about an hour and ended when campus security and local law enforcement broke up the gathering once the scene became unruly. No one was injured during the protest, but other pro-Palestinian protests across the nation have become violent. 

Beth Israel, a Jewish congregation in Jackson, expressed concern over the protest environment on college campuses and elsewhere.

“Many protests have devolved into hostile situations for campus communities, endangering Jewish students and faculty and closing the doors to civil discourse,” the congregation stated in a release on Friday, adding that Jews in such settings have been “harassed and targeted both physically and verbally with hateful language.”

The congregation added that the acts violate laws, and go against the ideology of humanity, and therefore should be condemned. Instead of violence, the Jewish congregation calls for thoughtful discussion that retains the peacefulness of community and understanding. 

With students soon returning to campuses for the fall semester, the Mississippi Jewish congregation implores college administrators to ensure student safety free from fear of harm.

“In keeping with this tradition and the parallel parameters of our Constitution, diverse perspectives can be learned in a respectful environment. Accordingly, when students return to campuses, it is incumbent upon college administrators, faculty and student leaders to ensure student safety and facilitate productive, civil conversations where students can express themselves without harassment or fear of harm,” the statement reads. 

As for the ongoing war in Gaza, the Jackson congregation offers their condolences to those who have lost loved ones and say they “strive for the peace that all who cherish life’s gifts deserve.”

“Our hearts continue to ache over the violence that has engulfed Israel and the Middle East since Hamas’ brutal attacks on October 7th. In this tragic reality, we lift the voices of mourners who have lost loved ones, those who await the return of the captive, those who have been injured and those who are forced to shelter themselves from harm,” the Beth Israel congregation. “Within our congregation and to all those in our surrounding community who anguish with worry, we offer our presence and light in defiance of the darkness around us. We have sacred work ahead of us to promote and strive for the peace that all who cherish life’s gifts deserve.”

The Biden Administration held meetings with Netanyahu during his visit this week aimed at working with the Israeli Prime Minister on a cease fire and the potential release of hostages being held by Hamas.

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Read original article by clicking here.

Mississippi Jewish congregation implores colleges to ensure student safety as classes resume

0

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.

Demonstrators march outside of the U.S. Capitol as they protest the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, July 24, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

  • Pro-Palestinian protests broke out in Washington D.C. this week as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States this week sparked protests in the nation’s capital.

As he shared his plan for victory over the terrorist group Hamas in a joint session of Congress, thousands of protestors gathered around Washington D.C. expressing their dissatisfaction with the war in Gaza – a war brought about by the Palestinian group’s brutal attack in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Pro-Palestinian protestors converged on Union Square holding up an effigy of Netanyahu along with signs saying “Wanted.” They defaced public property with spray paint with messages saying, “Free Gaza,” “All zionists are bastards,” “Free Palestine,” and “Hamas is coming.” A U.S. flag was pulled down and burned as a Palestinian flag was raised in its place. A number of protestors were arrested.

Netanyahu was defiant in his speech to Congress, saying if Israel loses, “America is next.” He pushed back on the protestors and called them “Iran’s useful idiots.” He spoke against the protests across the U.S. country, including on college campuses.

Mississippi, like many other states, experienced pro-Palestinian protests on its college campuses earlier this year. Brief protests were held at the University of Mississippi and Southern Miss. The Ole Miss protest lasted about an hour and ended when campus security and local law enforcement broke up the gathering once the scene became unruly. No one was injured during the protest, but other pro-Palestinian protests across the nation have become violent. 

Beth Israel, a Jewish congregation in Jackson, expressed concern over the protest environment on college campuses and elsewhere.

“Many protests have devolved into hostile situations for campus communities, endangering Jewish students and faculty and closing the doors to civil discourse,” the congregation stated in a release on Friday, adding that Jews in such settings have been “harassed and targeted both physically and verbally with hateful language.”

The congregation added that the acts violate laws, and go against the ideology of humanity, and therefore should be condemned. Instead of violence, the Jewish congregation calls for thoughtful discussion that retains the peacefulness of community and understanding. 

With students soon returning to campuses for the fall semester, the Mississippi Jewish congregation implores college administrators to ensure student safety free from fear of harm.

“In keeping with this tradition and the parallel parameters of our Constitution, diverse perspectives can be learned in a respectful environment. Accordingly, when students return to campuses, it is incumbent upon college administrators, faculty and student leaders to ensure student safety and facilitate productive, civil conversations where students can express themselves without harassment or fear of harm,” the statement reads. 

As for the ongoing war in Gaza, the Jackson congregation offers their condolences to those who have lost loved ones and say they “strive for the peace that all who cherish life’s gifts deserve.”

“Our hearts continue to ache over the violence that has engulfed Israel and the Middle East since Hamas’ brutal attacks on October 7th. In this tragic reality, we lift the voices of mourners who have lost loved ones, those who await the return of the captive, those who have been injured and those who are forced to shelter themselves from harm,” the Beth Israel congregation. “Within our congregation and to all those in our surrounding community who anguish with worry, we offer our presence and light in defiance of the darkness around us. We have sacred work ahead of us to promote and strive for the peace that all who cherish life’s gifts deserve.”

The Biden Administration held meetings with Netanyahu during his visit this week aimed at working with the Israeli Prime Minister on a cease fire and the potential release of hostages being held by Hamas.

This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

Read original article by clicking here.

‘We Should Have A Sense Of Urgency’ As Farm Drainage Tile Drives Nutrient Pollution

LIVINGSTON COUNTY, Mo.—An increased use of agricultural drainage tile is one reason a 2025 deadline to reduce nitrate and phosphorus entering the Gulf of Mexico by 20% is unlikely.  

Drainage tile, a system farmers use to drain water from croplands, is also a contributor to the historic loss of up to about 100 million acres of wetlands in the U.S., researchers say.

This hidden underground pipe system stretches over more than 50 million acres in the U.S., with about 84% of those acres in the upper Midwest. It has become essential to modern agriculture, but it brings devastating environmental consequences. 

About 98% of drainage tile in the nation is located in watersheds with excess nitrate and phosphorus levels. Tile changes the natural movement of water, serving as a conduit for pollution that is flushed quickly into nearby waterways. 

Drainage tile is the “main delivery mechanism for nitrates from farm fields to the stream network,” Chris Jones, a retired hydrologist from the University of Iowa, said.

Before tiles existed, a raindrop might take decades to reach a stream network, Jones explained. “Now it’s hours or days.” 

And researchers and agriculture industry experts say the problem is only getting worse. As climate change drives wetter weather in the Midwest and farmers push for greater productivity, many observers agree that drainage tile use is increasing. 

Yet in many states, tile goes unmonitored and unregulated. Since tiles are considered a nonpoint source of pollution, which comes from places like farms where water isn’t tested, they also fall outside the reach of the Clean Water Act. 

‘Bottom Line Is We Have to Make Money’

For many farmers, the math is simple. Tile costs about $1,850 to $3,700 per acre, an up-front investment that can increase annual crop yields by 5% to 25%. 

Tile installers bury a system of connected drain pipes under farm fields to transport water to an outlet or ditch. The drains suck excess water out of the soil, giving plants room to breathe and allowing farmers to work their fields sooner. 

For AG & Water

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Editor’s Note | Learning About Our State Makes Me Feel More Like a Mississippian

I may qualify as a native Mississippian—I was born at South Central Regional Medical Center in Laurel, Miss.—but as I grew up, I realized I did not have the same endearing feelings about my home state as my classmates. Those around me talked of how their families had lived in Mississippi for generations, but my roots didn’t run as deep as theirs.

My father is partly from Arkansas and partly from rural New York, while my mother is from Indiana. They independently moved to Mississippi and met when my mom brought the kids from the daycare she worked for to the Aladdin’s Castle arcade that my dad managed. Before long, I came into the picture, a first-generation Mississippian. 

Furthermore, I have known since I was in middle school that I wanted to become an editor, and for a long time, I assumed I would have to leave the state to land an editing job. Because I had this expectation, I did not think of Mississippi as “home.” Luckily, an opening at the Free Press that I stumbled upon shortly after my college graduation allowed me to avoid being another brain-drain statistic. 

Gradually, my coworkers’ pride in the positive aspects of our state influenced me into better appreciating Mississippi’s history, culture and its people. Since I shifted into working full-time for the statewide Mississippi Free Press, my outlook on the Magnolia State has continued to evolve. 

As of July 2024, the Mississippi Free Press’ culture and features section has had stories covering 55 of Mississippi’s 82 counties in some way. Deputy Editor Nate Schumann writes that he plans to close that gap as much as possible before the end of the year. Graphic MFP ” data-medium-file=”https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?fit=213%2C300&ssl=1″ data-large-file=”https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?fit=725%2C1024&ssl=1″ tabindex=”0″ role=”button” src=”https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?resize=725%2C1024&ssl=1″ alt=”A map that shows about two thirds of the counties of Mississippi filled in with purple” class=”wp-image-45315″ srcset=”https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?resize=725%2C1024&ssl=1 725w, https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?resize=213%2C300&ssl=1 213w, https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?resize=768%2C1084&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?resize=400%2C565&ssl=1 400w, https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content.jpg?w=850&ssl=1 850w, https://i0.wp.com/www.mississippifreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/County-Map-of-MFP-Culture-and-Feature-Content-725×1024.jpg?w=370&ssl=1 370w” sizes=”(max-width: 725px) 100vw, 725px” data-recalc-dims=”1″>As of July 2024, the Mississippi Free Press’ culture and features section has had stories covering 55 of Mississippi’s 82 counties

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A company wanted to store carbon under US forests. It may get its wish.

After it was twice denied permission to store carbon dioxide under U.S. Forest Service lands, a company looking to store millions of tons of the greenhouse gas in the Southeast made a strategic decision: Keep pushing.

The company, CapturePoint Solutions, leased property adjacent to forest service land in Mississippi for a project there. It started a program teaching carbon management at a school system near Forest Service land in Louisiana. And then, more than a year after it received its first denial, CapturePoint invited federal officials on an informational tour to discuss storing carbon under forest service land.

USFS officials are now considering a draft rule to allow carbon capture under U.S-owned land. The agency insists the company’s requests did not influence its decision to draft the rule — and that no one from the Forest Service attended the informational tour.

“We always felt and believed that the Forest Service was not following (Federal Land Policy and Management Act), and therefore continued our efforts,” said a CapturePoint spokesperson who asked not to be named.

That law allows some federal lands to be used for energy, including gas. Environmental groups argue the 1976 law does not cover carbon dioxide storage. They are concerned that CO2 could leak from the ground, injuring or killing people and animals and damaging the forest. Injecting the carbon underground, they say, amounts to an industrialization of federal land.

While it is technically possible for such a leak to occur, the chances of a leak from storage areas more than a mile underground are “extremely remote,” CapturePoint CEO Tracy Evans told Floodlight.

Visitors can ride their horses on one of many multiple-use trails on Sam Houston National Forest, Texas. ExxonMobil had sought to inject carbon under the forest, which is not allowed under U.S. Forest Service regulations. A draft agency rule, if finalized, would allow such sequestration.
” data-medium-file=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?fit=336%2C189&ssl=1″ data-large-file=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?fit=780%2C439&ssl=1″ tabindex=”0″ role=”button” src=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail.jpg?resize=780%2C439&ssl=1″ alt class=”wp-image-1122461″ srcset=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&ssl=1 1200w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=336%2C189&ssl=1 336w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=768%2C432&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=1536%2C864&ssl=1 1536w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=2048%2C1152&ssl=1 2048w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=1568%2C882&ssl=1 1568w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=2000%2C1125&ssl=1 2000w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=400%2C225&ssl=1 400w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?resize=706%2C397&ssl=1 706w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-scaled.jpg?w=2340&ssl=1 2340w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/USFS-trail-1200×675.jpg?w=370&ssl=1 370w” sizes=”(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px” data-recalc-dims=”1″>
Visitors can ride their horses on one of many multiple-use trails on Sam Houston National Forest, Texas. ExxonMobil had sought to inject carbon under the forest, which is not allowed under U.S. Forest Service regulations. A draft agency rule, if finalized, would allow such sequestration. Credit: Preston Keres / U.S. Forest Service

Agency records reveal various requests

CapturePoint’s efforts were detailed in public records obtained from the Forest Service by CURE, a Minnesota-based nonprofit, and shared with Floodlight. CURE is opposed to carbon pipelines in Minnesota and is concerned about carbon storage under Forest Service land in its state. The records also reveal inquiries in 2022 by ExxonMobil to stash carbon under the Sam Houston National Forest in Texas.

The Carbon Capture Coalition says the United States won’t be able to meet 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets unless it allows federal land to be used for carbon storage. The pro-carbon capture coalition of more than 100 companies, unions, conservation and environmental policy organizations estimates about 130 million acres of federal lands overlay suitable geology for the secure storage of captured carbon dioxide. The Forest Service manages 21% of that land.

CapturePoint applied to inject carbon under the Kisatchie National Forest in central Louisiana in 2021 under its previous corporate name, Authentic Reductions. CapturePoint also applied to inject carbon under the Delta National Forest in Mississippi in 2022.

The applications were rejected for the same reason — such a permit would allow a permanent use of Forest Service land, something the agency has historically not allowed.

The U.S. Forest Service owns 173 million acres of land. It is proposing that some land under its forests be used to store carbon captured from industries to prevent it from being released into the atmosphere.
” data-medium-file=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?fit=336%2C217&ssl=1″ data-large-file=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?fit=780%2C504&ssl=1″ tabindex=”0″ role=”button” src=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=780%2C504&ssl=1″ alt class=”wp-image-1122464″ srcset=”https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=1200%2C775&ssl=1 1200w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=336%2C217&ssl=1 336w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=768%2C496&ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C661&ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=400%2C258&ssl=1 400w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?resize=706%2C456&ssl=1 706w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1.jpg?w=1304&ssl=1 1304w, https://i0.wp.com/mississippitoday.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/U.S.-Forest-Service-land-1-1200×775.jpg?w=370&ssl=1 370w” sizes=”(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px” data-recalc-dims=”1″>
The U.S. Forest Service owns 173 million acres of land. It is proposing that some land under its forests be used to store carbon captured from industries to prevent it from being released into the atmosphere. Credit: U.S. Forest Service

New carbon capture rule on tap

Now, more than three years after the company began its push, the Forest Service is in the middle of changes that could allow the storage of the greenhouse gas under millions of acres of Forest Service land indefinitely.

The comment period for the draft rule ended in January. The Forest Service is currently reviewing the comments, agency spokesperson Catherine McRae said.

Both CapturePoint and the Forest Service agree: No agency employees ended up attending the tour the company held of the Kisatchie and Delta forests in 2022. CapturePoint said it had no direct input on the creation of the draft rules. And McRae said the company’s requests did not prompt the Forest Service to propose the draft rule.

The email correspondence in the records obtained by CURE included draft applications from CapturePoint to inject carbon under the two forests. In both, CapturePoint offered $1 per ton of injected carbon. In the Kisatchie National Forest, CapturePoint proposed injecting up to 50 million tons over a 12- to 20-year period — which it said is equivalent to removing the emissions from 10 million cars a year. In the Delta forest, the company said it wanted to inject 6-12 million tons over 12 years.

The Inflation Reduction Act offers companies that capture and store carbon dioxide from $60 to $180 per ton in tax credits. Evans told Floodlight $1 per ton was offered when subsidies were lower, but there are mechanisms in place to increase the payments if subdies increased.

“Some of the lobbying was sort of surprising,” said Hudson Kingston, legal director of CURE. He said the company “sucked up to” federal employees by offering to take them on the tour. “It’s how regulatory capture works.”

Victoria Bogdan Tejeda, an attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, had a similar reaction.

“One could really infer that there was a lot of industry pressure or influence to try to get access to this pore (underground) space,” Bogdan Tejeda said. “And that, so far, they were successful, at least with getting a rule out there that would make their applications possible.”

CapturePoint doesn’t see it that way. Evans argued that storing carbon under Forest Service and other federal lands makes sense given the federal government’s “desire to have CCS move forward.”

A ranger and a visitor look at the multi-use trails in Sam Houston National Forest in Texas. ExxonMobil had sought to inject carbon under the forest, which is not allowed under U.S. Forest Service regulations. A draft agency rule, if finalized, would allow such sequestration.
” data-image-caption=”

Visitors enjoy riding one of many multiple-use trails on Sam Houston National Forest, Texas.
(USDA Forest Service photo by Preston Keres)

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Visitors enjoy riding one of many multiple-use trails on Sam Houston National Forest, Texas.
(USDA Forest Service photo by Preston Keres) Credit: Preston Keres / U.S. Forest Service

Feds already allow some carbon storage

In addition to approaching the Forest Service, CapturePoint also inquired about storing carbon under a U.S. Army base in central Louisiana, he said.

Some federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, already allow carbon to be stored under their lands under the federal land management law. In 2022, the BLM granted its first approval to ExxonMobil to permanently store carbon under land in Wyoming, a project that remains controversial.

While CapturePoint says the law should also apply to the Forest Service, Bogdan Tejeda said it’s not that straightforward. The law does not mention carbon dioxide or permanent storage, and historically, the Forest Service has interpreted its own authority as barring any permanent use, she said.

November’s draft rule by the Forest Service surprised many agency observers, who say it bucks precedent. While there are leases on Forest Service for oil and gas drilling, for instance, those leases are for a set number of years, not for a permanent use, Bogdan Tejeda said.

“I’m not seeing anything in the rule that they (USFS) issued, showing why that would change,” she said.

Among the concerns over storing carbon under forest service land is the potential to endanger tribes’ access to fish and other food, which the federal government agreed to protect in exchange for seizing vast tracts of Native American land, according to the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation in Oregon.

Boaters head out onto Lake Conroe on Sam Houston National Forest, Texas.
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Boaters head out onto Lake Conroe on Sam Houston National Forest, Texas. Credit: USDA Forest Service photo by Preston Keres

Bogdan Tejeda still has a lot of questions, including who will monitor the stored carbon after CapturePoint is gone — and who will be liable if something goes wrong.

“It gives industry essentially a place to dump their carbon dioxide waste, benefit from the tax credits, and they don’t have to deal with the messiness of trying to get permission from property owners and eminent domain.”

The federal government says, ‘Hey, just come on over here,’ ” she said, “and that’s a form of a subsidy.”

Floodlight is a nonprofit newsroom that partners with local and national outlets to investigate the powerful interests stalling climate action.

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$100 million emissions reduction project announced in Yazoo City

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CF Industries’ Donaldson, Louisiana Ammonia 6 plant. (Photo from company website)

  • It is the second major decarbonization project undertaken by CF Industries Holdings, Inc., the world’s largest producer of ammonia.

A carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project is moving forward in Yazoo City. That was the word Thursday from CF Industries Holdings, Inc., the world’s largest producer of ammonia.

The company announced that the project at its Delta facility, its second major decarbonization project, is expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted to the atmosphere from the facility by up to 500,000 metric tons annually. As part of the project, the CF Industrial Holdings signed a definitive commercial agreement with ExxonMobil for the transport and sequestration in permanent geologic storage of the CO2, with sequestration expected to start in 2028.

“We are pleased to advance another significant decarbonization project that will keep CF Industries at the forefront of low-carbon ammonia production while also helping us achieve our 2030 emissions intensity reduction goal,” said Tony Will, President and CEO of CF Industries Holdings said in a statement. “This decarbonization project also will increase the availability of nitrogen products with a lower-carbon intensity for customers focused on reducing the carbon footprint of their businesses.”

CF Industries Holdings said it is investing approximately $100 million into its Yazoo City Complex. Once sequestration by ExxonMobil has commenced, the company expects the project to qualify for tax credits under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code, which provides a credit per metric ton of CO2 sequestered.

The Yazoo City Complex is expected to be able to manufacture products with a substantially lower carbon intensity than conventional ammonia production sites.

According to the company, most of the ammonia produced at the Yazoo City Complex is upgraded into nitrogen fertilizers such as urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions and ammonium nitrate (AN), or upgraded into diesel exhaust fluid, which is used to reduce NOx emissions from diesel trucks.

AN produced at Yazoo City is used as fertilizer and also by the mining industry as a component of explosives. The company anticipates demand for these products manufactured with a lower carbon intensity to increase significantly as the agriculture and mining industries work to lower carbon emissions in their supply chains.

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