Amidst the illustrious setting of the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, a political spectacle unfolded Wednesday night that accurately captured the essence of modern-day GOP politics.
The stage was full of hopefuls, but there was one notable absentee, a man who thrives in the spotlight — former President Donald Trump. He instead chose an unconventional path for the night, addressing blue-collar workers in Detroit, a strategic move aimed at diverting attention away from the debate stage. Trump’s decision was a declaration that these debates are inconsequential; he contends his rematch with President Joe Biden is already underway. Yet, beneath Trump’s confident bravado, the latest polls tell a slightly different story, one that might not be as favorable for Trump as he would have us believe.
According to a recent CBS News/YouGov survey conducted in both Iowa and New Hampshire, it appears that more Republican voters in these crucial early states have ruled out voting for Trump than have firmly decided to back him. In Iowa, only 20% of voters claim to be exclusively considering Trump, while a substantial 48% are weighing their options between the former president and other candidates. Shockingly, 31% of Iowa voters in the poll are not even considering casting their ballots for Trump, leaving a whopping 79% of the electorate open to, or committed to, other candidates.
The story is no different in New Hampshire, where the poll showed 23% of voters are committed to supporting Trump, but 43% are keeping their options open, and 34% are exclusively considering candidates other than Trump. Despite this, Trump still maintains significant leads over his competition when voters are asked who they would vote for if the elections were held today. In Iowa, Trump garners the support of 51% of Republicans, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trailing at 21% and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 8%. In New Hampshire, Trump enjoys an even greater lead.
The goal for GOP candidates not named Trump is clear: leverage the debate stage to momentarily steal the media spotlight and along with it, GOP voters wavering on
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