This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on reproductive freedom at Howard University on Tuesday, April 25, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard)
- The Republican nominee now trails Vice President Harris in national polling. Surveys in key battleground states show a statistical dead heat between Trump and his Democratic opponent.
Former President Donald Trump is now trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in national polling.
Trump, the Republican nominee for a third consecutive election cycle, saw a bump in the polls following the debate with President Joe Biden in June. The former President also saw his polling stock rise after the attempted assassination in Pennsylvania which was then followed by the Republican National Convention.
Harris, now the Democratic nominee, has benefitted from a bump after being handed the party’s nomination by President Biden. After running the table throughout the Democratic primaries, Biden announced he was withdrawing from his re-election bid in July, soon after endorsing his Vice President. Harris was declared the party’s nominee on Monday in a virtual meeting of Democratic delegates.
Harris’ announcement of a running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, on Tuesday has played into her positive movement in the polls as well. Once downtrodden Democrats now show signs of life, as Harris rallies her base.
READ MORE: Harris picks Minnesota Governor as running mate
According to a new NPRS/PBS News/Marist poll, Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points – 51% to 48% – in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Last month, Trump was up by 1 percentage point over Harris.
The Marist poll also notes, “Regardless of whom they support, registered voters divide (48% to 48%) as to who they think will win the presidential election. Trump previously had a 20-percentage point advantage over Biden on this question. 52% of independents currently believe Harris will be victorious.”
FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates and averages polling data and adjusts based on state and national polls, shows Harris now up 2.1 percent over Trump. It is her highest margin of separation thus far reported by FiveThirtyEight.
Notably, FiveThirtyEight’s favorability rating of Harris has gone from 53.8% unfavorable on July 8th to 48.6% as of Thursday. By comparison, Trump’s rating has moved only slightly more positive in that same period, going from 53.4% unfavorable to 51.7%.
In another survey from RealClearPolling, Harris is now up half a percentage point over Trump, coming in at 47.6% to 47.1%.
And in yet another poll conducted by Ipsos, Harris and Trump are in a statistical dead heat in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Harris still edges Trump by 2% with the third party candidates considered, but head-to-head, Trump leads by 1%.
With Biden as the Democratic nominee, polling showed Trump leading in a majority of these battleground states last month.
The Ipsos poll shows that Trump outperforms Harris on inflation and immigration. Yet, respondents believe Harris to be more moral, caring and intellectual. Trump is more likely to be viewed as “weird,” brave, lazy and a patriot.
This article first appeared on the Magnolia Tribune and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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